Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?PS: Political Science & Politics
DOI of Published Version10.1017/S1049096500021296
AbstractOne autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.
Journal Article VersionVersion of Record
Published Article/Book CitationPS: Political Science & Politics, 18:1 (1985) pp. 53-62.
RightsCopyright © 1985 American Political Science Association. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC
Citation InformationMichael S. Lewis-Beck. "Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?" PS: Political Science & Politics Vol. 18 Iss. 1 (1985) p. 53 - 62 ISSN: 1049-0965
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/michael_lewis_beck/145/