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Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?
PS: Political Science & Politics
  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa
Document Type
Peer Reviewed
Publication Date
DOI of Published Version
One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.
Journal Article Version
Version of Record
Published Article/Book Citation
PS: Political Science & Politics, 18:1 (1985) pp. 53-62.
Copyright © 1985 American Political Science Association. Used by permission.
Citation Information
Michael S. Lewis-Beck. "Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?" PS: Political Science & Politics Vol. 18 Iss. 1 (1985) p. 53 - 62 ISSN: 1049-0965
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