The Impact of Sanctions on Trade: An Application to the European-Russian Case(2015)
This paper analyzes the impact of the European-Russian sanctions of 2014 on the European export patterns. By applying a gravity model to disaggregated, monthly data I assess multiple effects that possibly kick in during a sanctions episode. First of all I empirically confirm the expectation that the exports of sanctioned products to Russia significantly decreased. The impact of the European embargo however appears to be limited compared to the effect of the Russian boycott. Second, evidence is found for the sanction busting argument, as the European exports of Russian blocked goods to the Eurasian Customs Union significantly increased. Furthermore my findings confirm the presence of the third country effect. Non-targeted countries attracted considerably more Russian boycotted commodities of the EU. Fourth, domestic agricultural prices faced a downward trend due to the installed trade restrictions. Contrary to my expectation of detecting a comparable price drop in the total, European export patterns, I only observed this for the exports to Belarus. Next, the exports of non-boycotted products declined as well. Finally, the results also point towards a more severe impact on perishable goods.
Publication DateSummer September 8, 2015
Citation InformationMichiel Van Acoleyen. "The Impact of Sanctions on Trade: An Application to the European-Russian Case" (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/michael_andersons/8/