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Article
Applying system dynamics to model advanced persistent threats
ACM International Conference Proceeding Series
  • Mathew Nicho, Zayed University
  • Hussein Fakhry, Zayed University
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
10-8-2019
Abstract

© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery. System dynamics (SD) concept has been successfully applied to analyze issues that are non-linear, complex, and dynamic in disciplines namely social sciences and technology. However, its application to cyber security issues especially threats that involves multiple variables interacting with the technical as well as the organizational domain is lacking. In this respect, Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) is regarded as a highly targeted and sophisticated attack using zero-day malware, stealth, and multiple advanced techniques to gain entry and maintain its presence inside organizational network unnoticed. Being a threat that exploits technical as well as organizational vulnerabilities, preventing it at the security perimeter and, detecting it once it enters the system is a challenge till date. To demonstrate the application of SD in identifying and analyzing the effect of each of the variables, we took the Equinox data breach as a case study. The variables leading to the breach were identified, entered into Vensim software and simulated to get the results. Through this exercise, we could identify seven key independent management variables for the technical security and three key independent variables for records breach. This research being the foremost study to apply SD to APT, we presume that by modelling APT attacks using SD through a case study this paper, thus provides insights into the dynamics of the threat. Furthermore, it suggests 'what if' strategies to minimize APT risks thereby reduce the extent of damages should an APT attack occur.

ISBN
9781450376396
Publisher
Association for Computing Machinery
Disciplines
Keywords
  • Advanced persistent threats,
  • Cyber-threats,
  • Data breach,
  • Systems dynamic
Scopus ID
85082516498
Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
No
https://doi.org/10.1145/3380678.3380682
Citation Information
Mathew Nicho and Hussein Fakhry. "Applying system dynamics to model advanced persistent threats" ACM International Conference Proceeding Series (2019) p. 29 - 33
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/mathew-nicho/1/