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Dataset
Data From: Machine Learning Predictions of Electricity Capacity
Systems Science Faculty Datasets
  • Marcus Harris, Portland State University
  • Elizabeth Kirby, Bonneville Power Administration
  • Ameeta Agrawal, Portland State University
  • Rhitabrat Pokharel, Portland State University
  • Francis Puyleart, Bonneville Power Administration
  • Martin Zwick, Portland State University
Document Type
Dataset
Publication Date
12-1-2022
Subjects
  • Machine Learning,
  • Artificial Intelligence,
  • Electricity,
  • Energy,
  • Capacity,
  • Ancillary Services,
  • Reconstructability Analysis,
  • Bayesian Networks,
  • Support Vector Machines,
  • Neural Networks
Abstract

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This research accomplishes these aims. The models built in this paper identify wind forecast, sunrise/sunset and the hour of day as primary predictors of net load imbalance, among other variables, and show that the average size of the INC and DEC capacity requirements can be reduced by over 25% with the margin of error currently used in the industry while also significantly improving closeness and exceedance reliability metrics. The reduction in INC and DEC capacity requirements would yield an approximate cost savings of $4 million annually for one of 19 Western Energy Imbalance market participants. Reconstructability Analysis performs the best among the machine learning methods tested.

Description

The data supports an in-review manuscript published in Energies (DOI and full citation will be provided upon publication).

Data Description:

  • The file is a .csv spreadsheet. Data is divided into 5 folds, as described in the paper.
Rights

This work is marked with CC0 1.0 Universal

DOI
10.15760/sysc-data.1
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/38933
Citation Information
Harris, Marcus; Kirby, Elizabeth; Agrawal, Ameeta; Pokharel, Rhitabrat; Puyleart, Francis; and Zwick, Martin, "Data From: Machine Learning Predictions of Electricity Capacity" (2022). Systems Science Faculty Datasets. 1.
https://doi.org/10.15760/sysc-data.1