Mortality Clines, Epidemic Transmission Velocities and Transportation Networks during Medieval Black DeathPaper at AGM of the AAG (2012)
AbstractThe primary wave of the Medieval Black Death (MBD) was the most lethal epidemic to strike Europe in recorded history, killing in excess of 30% of the population in a few years. The cause has never been determined with scientific certainty. We utilize GIS and basic spatial analysis to determine whether locations with recorded mortality during this epidemic were randomly situated in the European spatial domain, restricted to ports or were clustered around intense human activity. The results strongly suggest that transportation networks and nodes were associated with MBD mortality sites. We also used GIS and vector analysis to identify port-port and overland transmission velocities. The results indicate that overland velocities observed far exceed transmission velocities identified with modern plague. These results add further evidence at odds with the dominant etiologic theory of this deadly disease episode.
- Medieval black death,
- Epidemic transmission
Citation InformationMark R. Welford. "Mortality Clines, Epidemic Transmission Velocities and Transportation Networks during Medieval Black Death" Paper at AGM of the AAG. NYC. Jan. 2012.