Article
Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis
Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science
(2019)
Abstract
Scientific advances across a range of disciplines hinge on the ability to make inferences about unobservable theoretical entities on the basis of empirical data patterns. Accurate inferences rely on both discovering valid, replicable data patterns and accurately interpreting those patterns in terms of their implications for theoretical constructs. The replication crisis in science has led to widespread efforts to improve the reliability of research findings, but comparatively little attention has been devoted to the validity of inferences based on those findings. Using an example from cognitive psychology, we demonstrate a blinded-inference paradigm for assessing the quality of theoretical inferences from data. Our results reveal substantial variability in experts’ judgments on the very same data, hinting at a possible inference crisis.
Keywords
- memory,
- modeling,
- Bayesian methods,
- bootstrap,
- metascience,
- blinded inference,
- open data
Disciplines
Publication Date
September 17, 2019
DOI
10.1177/2515245919869583
Citation Information
Jeffrey J. Starns, Andrea M. Cataldo, Caren M. Rotello, Jeffrey Annis, et al.. "Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference Crisis" Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science Vol. 2 Iss. 4 (2019) p. 335 - 349 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/marianne_lloyd/22/