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Article
Market Risk and Market-Implied Inflation Expectations
WCBT Faculty Publications
  • Lucjan T. Orlowski, Sacred Heart University
  • Carolyne Cebrian Soper, Central Connecticut State University
Document Type
Peer-Reviewed Article
Publication Date
11-1-2019
Abstract

We examine interactions between market risk and market-implied inflation expectations. We argue that these interactions are asymmetric and varied in time. Specifically, market risk becomes elevated by expectations of either very low or high expected inflation. Market risk does not react to expectations of moderate, stable inflation. In our analysis, market risk is proxied by VIX and market-implied inflation expectations are reflected by five- and ten-year breakeven inflation. We use daily data for 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation and VIX for the sample period January 3, 2003 – January 24, 2019 for empirical testing. We employ asymptotic VAR, multiple breakpoint regression and Markov switching tests to examine changeable patterns in these interactions. Our tests indicate prevalence of responses of expected low inflation or deflation to higher market risk, mainly for the 5-year breakeven inflation series. These responses are particularly significant during the run-up and aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Comments

JEL Classification: C22, C58, E31, E44, G12.

Version posted is the journal pre-proof. The definitive version of record is located at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057521919301978

DOI
10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101389
Citation Information

Orlowski, L. T. & Soper, C. (2019). Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations, International Review of Financial Analysis, 66, 101389. doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101389