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Article
Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases
Physical Review E (2005)
  • Ira B. Schwartz, US Naval Research Labratory
  • Leah B Shaw, US Naval Research Labratory
  • Derek A.T. Cummings, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
  • Lora Billings, Montclair State University
  • Marie McCrary, Montclair State University
  • Donald S. Burke, Montclair State University
Abstract
Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement ADE, in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime. 
Publication Date
Winter December 1, 2005
DOI
10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201
Citation Information
Ira B. Schwartz, Leah B Shaw, Derek A.T. Cummings, Lora Billings, et al.. "Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases" Physical Review E (2005) ISSN: 2470-0053
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/lora-billings/23/