Unpublished Paper
highly probable Paradox
Monetary Theory
(2016)
Abstract
If a bad event occurs with probability 1/n in a size n sample, then you are inclined to believe that the bigger the sample, the less likely the bad event will occur. On the contrary as the sample becomes bigger and bigger, the probability that at least one bad event will occur gets closer and closer to 1-1/e. I was led to this surprising result in my study of financial crises, Two Certainties: Death, Taxes and an Honorable Mention, Financial Crises.
Keywords
- Asymptotic Probability
Disciplines
Publication Date
November 22, 2016
Citation Information
Lester G Telser. "highly probable Paradox" Monetary Theory (2016) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/lester_telser/71/