Skip to main content
profile image
Selected Works of Lester G Telser
Unpublished Paper
Two Certainties: Death, Taxes and an Honorable Mention, Financial Crises
(2011)
  • Lester G Telser, University of Chicago
Download
Abstract

If the probability of a financial crisis were a fixed number, no matter how small, then the law of large numbers says a financial crisis will occur eventually. In my model the probability of a crisis approaches but never reaches zero. It yields the surprising result that the probability of a financial crisis does not exceed 0.63212=1-1/e. Financial Institutions and Services. JEL G2

Keywords
  • Financial Crisis,
  • Risk
Disciplines
Publication Date
May, 2011
Citation Information
Lester G Telser. "Two Certainties: Death, Taxes and an Honorable Mention, Financial Crises" (2011)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/lester_telser/29/