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Presentation
Global sensitivity analysis for the short-term prediction of system variables
Proceedings of the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
  • Qun Zhou, Iowa State University
  • Leigh Tesfatsion, Iowa State University
  • Chen-Ching Liu, Iowa State University
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Conference
2010 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Link to Published Version
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PES.2010.5588174
Publication Date
1-1-2010
DOI
10.1109/PES.2010.5588174
Conference Title
2010 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Conference Date
July 25-29, 2010
Geolocation
(44.977753, -93.26501080000003)
Abstract
Abstract: Short-term prediction of system variables with respect to load levels is highly important for market operations and demand response programs in wholesale power markets with congestion managed by locational marginal prices (LMPs). Previous studies have conducted local sensitivity analyses for LMPs at specific system operating points. This study undertakes a more global analysis of system variable sensitivities when LMPs are derived from DC optimal power flow solutions for day-ahead energy markets. The possible system states are first partitioned into subsets (“system patterns”) based on relatively slow-changing attributes. It is next established analytically that there is a fixed linear-affine mapping between bus load patterns and corresponding system variables, conditional on a particular system pattern. It is then explained how this global piecewise linear-affine mapping can be used to predict system patterns corresponding to forecasted load patterns, hence also dispatch levels, LMPs, and line flows. A 5-bus case study is used to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed prediction method.
Comments

© 2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. DOI: 10.1109/PES.2010.5588174

Copyright Owner
IEEE
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Qun Zhou, Leigh Tesfatsion and Chen-Ching Liu. "Global sensitivity analysis for the short-term prediction of system variables" Minneapolis, MNProceedings of the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (2010)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/leigh-tesfatsion/60/