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Article
The role of survival analysis in financial distress prediction
International Research Journal of Finance and Economics
  • Adrian Gepp, Bond University
  • Kuldeep Kumar, Bond University
Date of this Version
6-1-2008
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Details

Published version

Gepp, A., & Kumar, K. (2008). The role of survival analysis in financial distress prediction. International research journal of finance and economics, (16), 13-34.

2008 HERDC submission. FoR Code: 1502

© Copyright EuroJournals Publishing, Inc., 2008

Abstract

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly in financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models has been recently emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high profile businesses in both Australia and overseas, such as HIH (Australia) and Enron (USA). Consequently, there has been a significant increase in interest in business failure prediction from both industry and academia.

Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses have been the most popular approaches, but there are also a large number of alternative techniques available. In this paper, a comparatively new technique known as survival analysis has been used for business failure prediction. In addition, hybrid models combining survival analysis with either discriminant analysis or logit analysis were trialled, but their empirical performance was poor. Overall, the results suggest that survival analysis techniques provide more information that can be used to further the understanding of the business failure process.

Citation Information
Adrian Gepp and Kuldeep Kumar. "The role of survival analysis in financial distress prediction" International Research Journal of Finance and Economics Iss. 16 (2008) p. 13 - 34 ISSN: 1450-2887
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/kuldeep_kumar/15/