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Article
Testing Dependencies in Term Structure of Interest Rates
Modeling Dependence in Econometrics: Selected Papers of the Seventh International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, January 8-10, 2014
  • Kian Guan Lim, Singapore Management University
Publication Type
Conference Proceeding Article
Publication Date
1-2014
Abstract

In this paper we study the term structure of interest rates and test the rational expectations hypothesis using single regression equations and then multivariate regression equations. Single regression equations are found to produce results that are sensitive to outliers due to finite sample. Multivariate regression equations produce results that are less sensitive to outliers due to a larger sample size, and in our sample, yield a borderline rejection of the rational expectatons hypothesis. We apply a distance covariance test statistic measuring the deviation from independence between the forward forecast errors and present information variables. This measure is asymptotically distributed to be bounded below by χ21 for usual ranges of critical region, and does not require any distributional assumption. The rational expectation hypothesis is more clearly rejected using the distance covariance metric. There is thus preliminary evidence that distributional and linearity mis-specification of the rationality hypothesis in the term structure could potentially biased toward non-rejection of an otherwise generally unsustainable hypothesis.

Keywords
  • Computational Intelligence,
  • Artificial Intelligence,
  • Robotics,
  • Econometrics
ISBN
9783319033945
Identifier
10.1007/978-3-319-03395-2_9
Publisher
Springer Verlag
City or Country
Cham
Citation Information
Kian Guan Lim. "Testing Dependencies in Term Structure of Interest Rates" Modeling Dependence in Econometrics: Selected Papers of the Seventh International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, January 8-10, 2014 Vol. 251 (2014) p. 141 - 154
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/kianguan-lim/115/