Skip to main content
Article
U.S. Dollar Swap Yields: An Analysis of the Dynamics of Monthly Changes
WCBT Faculty Publications
  • Tanweer Akram, Citibank
  • Khawaja Mamun, Sacred Heart University
Document Type
Peer-Reviewed Article
Publication Date
1-1-2023
Abstract

John Maynard Keynes asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes’s conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This article investigates whether Keynes’s claim also holds for the monthly changes in U.S.-dollar-denominated long-term swap yields by econometrically modeling its dynamics using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The econometric modeling reveals that there is a statistically significant effect of the monthly changes in the Treasury bill rate on the monthly changes in swap yields of different maturity tenors after controlling for a host of macroeconomic and financial control variables. The findings from the econometric models that are estimated render a perspicacious Keynesian perspective on key policy questions and contemporary debates in macroeconomics and finance.

Comments

JEL Classification Codes: E43, E50, E58, E60, G10, G12

Data Set available here as an additional file.

DOI
10.1080/00213624.2023.2201797
Citation Information

Akram, T., & Mamun, K. (2023). US dollar swap yields: An analysis of the dynamics of monthly changes. Journal of Economic Issues, 57(2), 522-531. Doi: 10.1080/00213624.2023.2201797