Article
A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modeling Hourly Electricity Loads
Journal of Forecasting
(2006)
Abstract
In this paper we develop a semi-parametric approach to model nonlinear relationships in serially correlated data. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach, we apply it to a set of hourly electricity load data. This approach takes into consideration the effect of temperature combined with those of time-of-day and type-of-day via nonparametric estimation. In addition, an ARIMA model is used to model the serial correlation in the data. An iterative backfitting algorithm is used to estimate the model. Post-sample forecasting performance is evaluated and comparative results are presented.
Keywords
- Semi-parametric time series,
- Hourly electricity loads,
- ARIMA,
- Forecasting performance
Disciplines
Publication Date
December 15, 2006
DOI
10.1002/for.1006
Citation Information
Jun Liu, Rong Chen, Lon-Mu Liu and John L. Harris. "A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modeling Hourly Electricity Loads" Journal of Forecasting Vol. 25 Iss. 8 (2006) p. 537 - 559 ISSN: 0277-6693 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jun_liu/8/