Presentation
Issues in Forecasting International Tourist Travel
Allied Academies International Conference
Document Type
Presentation
Presentation Date
4-1-2012
Disciplines
Abstract or Description
In this paper two popular time series methods for modeling seasonality in tourism forecasts are compared. The first uses a decomposition methodology to estimate seasonal variation. In this method seasonal variation is estimated with a ratio-to-centered moving average approach. Three different approaches in calculating the seasonal indices are analyzed. The deseasonalized series are then forecast using an ARIMA model. The second methodology uses a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) approach to simultaneously model trend and seasonal variations. The two methodologies are compared and the accuracy and managerial advantages of each are discussed.
Location
New Orleans, LA
Citation Information
Steven E. Moss, Jun Liu and Janet Moss. "Issues in Forecasting International Tourist Travel" Allied Academies International Conference (2012) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jun_liu/39/
This presentation is available in the Academy of Information and Management Sciences Journal Proceeding volume 16, number 1 on page 33.