Presentation
A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modelling Hourly Electricity Loads
ICSA Applied Statistics Symposium
(2002)
Abstract
A semi-parametric approach is developed to model nonlinear time series. This approach is used on hourly electricity load data, it considers the effect of temperature combined with those of time and day type. The temperature effect is modelled by nonparametric smoothing. An ARIMA model is used to model the serial correlation. An iterative backfitting algorithm is proposed for estimation. The post sample forecasting performance and comparative results show good potential of this approach.
Keywords
- Semi-parametric approach,
- Nonlinear,
- Time series,
- Hourly electricity load data,
- ARIMA,
- Nonparametric smoothing
Disciplines
Publication Date
2002
Location
Philadelphia, PA
Citation Information
Jun Liu. "A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modelling Hourly Electricity Loads" ICSA Applied Statistics Symposium (2002) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jun_liu/29/