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Presentation
A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modelling Hourly Electricity Loads
INFORMS Annual Meeting (2005)
  • Jun Liu, Georgia Southern University
Abstract
A semi-parametric approach is developed to model nonlinear time series. This approach is used on hourly electricity load data, it considers the effect of temperature combined with those of time and day type. The temperature effect is modelled by nonparametric smoothing. An ARIMA model is used to model the serial correlation. An iterative backfitting algorithm is proposed for estimation. The post sample forecasting performance and comparative results show good potential of this approach.
Keywords
  • Semi-parametric approach,
  • Nonlinear,
  • Time series,
  • Hourly electricity load data,
  • ARIMA,
  • Nonparametric smoothing
Disciplines
Publication Date
November 16, 2005
Location
San Francisco, CA
Citation Information
Jun Liu. "A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modelling Hourly Electricity Loads" INFORMS Annual Meeting (2005)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jun_liu/28/