Skip to main content
Thesis
Are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Controlling the Stock Market? An Analysis of the 2016 Presidential Election's Impact on Stock Market Volatility
(2016)
  • Julia Tambone, Scripps College
Abstract

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years.  In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time periods: the year leading up to the 2016 election, all election years excluding the 2016, and all non-election years. I found that the 2016 election year was significantly less volatile than both prior election years as well as non-election years, suggesting that the 2015-2016 election year was not a closely contested race.
Disciplines
Publication Date
Fall December 9, 2016
Degree
Bachelors of Arts
Field of study
Economics
Department
Economics
Advisor
Professor Pedace
Citation Information
Julia Tambone. "Are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Controlling the Stock Market? An Analysis of the 2016 Presidential Election's Impact on Stock Market Volatility" (2016)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/julia-tambone/2/