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Article
Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2022)
  • Jonathan Benchimol
  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Yossi Saadon
Abstract
Each person’s characteristics may influence that person’s behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts’ performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts’ inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.
Keywords
  • Expert forecast,
  • Behavioral economics,
  • Survival analysis,
  • Panel estimation,
  • Global financial crisis,
  • Economics of Education,
  • Labor economics
Publication Date
September, 2022
DOI
10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025
Citation Information
Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi and Yossi Saadon. "Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Vol. 201 (2022) p. 205 - 226
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jonathanbenchimol/15/