Skip to main content
Article
Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism
Economic Modelling (2020)
  • Jonathan Benchimol
  • Makram El-Shagi, Henan University
Abstract
Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty and assess the forecasting performance of market-based and professional inflation and exchange rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, the performance of both market-based and expert forecasts is significantly worse during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
Keywords
  • inflation forecast,
  • exchange rate forecast,
  • forecast performance,
  • expert forecast,
  • market forecast,
  • terrorism
Publication Date
Fall September 1, 2020
DOI
10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.018
Citation Information
Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism, with Makram El-Shagi. Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Pages 386-402, September 2020.