
Article
Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Document Type
Article
Disciplines
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
1-1-2010
DOI
10.1093/ajae/aap009
Abstract
We analyze the coupling effect of expectations about base acreage and yield updating in future farm policy on production decisions in the presence of price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk-averse farmer producing a single crop. The farmer receives market revenue and government payments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, optimum decisions under present value calculations positively link current acreage and fertilizer decisions to future government payments through expected updates of base acreage and yield in the future regime. Moving from a zero probability of updating to a probability of one increases optimum acreage and yield by 6.25% and 0.134%, respectively.
Citation Information
Arathi Bhaskar and John Beghin. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty" American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 92 Iss. 3 (2010) p. 849 - 858 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/john-beghin/114/
This is a working paper of an article from American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92 (2010): 849, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aap009