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Article
Modeling the Importation and Local Transmission of Vector-Borne Diseases in Florida: The Case of Zika Outbreak in 2016
Journal of Theoretical Biology
  • Jing Chen, Nova Southeastern University
  • John C. Beier, University of Miami
  • Robert Stephen Cantrell, University of Miami
  • Chris Cosner, University of Miami
  • Douglas O. Fuller, University of Miami
  • Yongtao Guan, University of Miami
  • Guoyan Zhang, Florida Department of Health
  • Shigui Ruan, University of Miami
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
10-14-2018
Keywords
  • Mathematical modeling,
  • Mosquito-borne diseases,
  • Chikungunya,
  • Dengue,
  • Zika,
  • Transmission dynamics,
  • Sensitive analysis
Abstract

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses are all transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito species, had been imported to Florida and caused local outbreaks. We propose a deterministic model to study the importation and local transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. The purpose is to model and mimic the importation of these viruses to Florida via travelers, local infections in domestic mosquitoes by imported travelers, and finally non-travel related transmissions to local humans by infected local mosquitoes. As a case study, the model will be used to simulate the accumulative Zika cases in Florida. Since the disease system is driven by a continuing input of infections from outside sources, orthodox analytic methods based on the calculation of the basic reproduction number are inadequate to describe and predict their behavior. Via steady-state analysis and sensitivity analysis, effective control and prevention measures for these mosquito-borne diseases are tested.

Comments

©2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Additional Comments
CDC grant #: 1U01CK000510-01; NSF grant #: DMS-1412454
DOI
10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.07.026
Citation Information
Jing Chen, John C. Beier, Robert Stephen Cantrell, Chris Cosner, et al.. "Modeling the Importation and Local Transmission of Vector-Borne Diseases in Florida: The Case of Zika Outbreak in 2016" Journal of Theoretical Biology Vol. 455 (2018) p. 342 - 356 ISSN: 0022-5193
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jing-chen/17/