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Article
A Note on Takeover Success Prediction
International Review of Financial Analysis (2008)
  • Ben Branch
  • Jia Wang, Rowan University
  • Taewon Yang
Abstract
A takeover success prediction model attempts to use information that is publicly available at the time of the announcement in order to predict the probability that a takeover attempt will succeed. This paper develops a takeover success prediction model by comparing two techniques: the traditional logistic regression model and the artificial neural network technology. To alleviate the problem of bias from the sampling variation, we validate our results through re-sampling. Our empirical results indicate that 1). Arbitrage spread, target resistance, deal structure and transaction size are the dominating factors that have impacts on the outcome of a takeover attempt. 2). Neural network model outperforms logistic regression in predicting failed takeover attempts and performs as well as logistic regression in predicting successful takeover attempts.
Disciplines
Publication Date
December, 2008
DOI
10.1016/j.irfa.2007.07.003
Citation Information
Ben Branch, Jia Wang and Taewon Yang. "A Note on Takeover Success Prediction" International Review of Financial Analysis Vol. 17 Iss. 5 (2008) p. 1186 - 1193
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jia-wang/22/