
Article
Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion "S" Curve to Declines in Media Use
Journal of Media Business Studies
Document Type
Article
Disciplines
Publication Date
1-1-2014
Abstract
The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with Scurves. However, the S-curve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed.
Copyright Owner
Newell, et al.
Copyright Date
2014
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Jay Newell, Ulrike Genschel and Ni Zhang. "Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion "S" Curve to Declines in Media Use" Journal of Media Business Studies Vol. 11 Iss. 4 (2014) p. 27 - 50 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jay_newell/1/
This is a manuscript of an article from Journal of Media Business Studies 11 (2014): 27. Posted with permission.