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Article
Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion "S" Curve to Declines in Media Use
Journal of Media Business Studies
  • Jay Newell, Iowa State University
  • Ulrike Genschel, Iowa State University
  • Ni Zhang, Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2014
Abstract

The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with Scurves. However, the S-curve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article from Journal of Media Business Studies 11 (2014): 27. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
Newell, et al.
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Jay Newell, Ulrike Genschel and Ni Zhang. "Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion "S" Curve to Declines in Media Use" Journal of Media Business Studies Vol. 11 Iss. 4 (2014) p. 27 - 50
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jay_newell/1/