Introduction: A better understanding of how menthol cigarette flavoring and ENDS impact smoking initiation, cessation, and transitions between tobacco products could help elucidate the potential impact of a U.S. menthol ban on combustible tobacco products.

Methods: A multistate transition model was applied to data on 23,232 adults from Waves 1-4 (2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (analysis was conducted in 2020-2021). Transition rates among never, noncurrent, nonmenthol versus menthol cigarette, ENDS, and dual everyday/someday use were estimated, as were transition-specific hazard ratios for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income.

Results: Non-Hispanic Blacks who smoked menthol discontinued smoking at a much lower rate than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=0.43, 95% CI=0.29, 0.64), but there was no statistically significant difference in the discontinuation rates among non-Hispanic Whites (hazard ratio=0.97, 95% CI=0.80, 1.16) or Hispanics (hazard ratio=0.81, 95% CI=0.56, 1.16). Non-Hispanic Whites who smoked menthol were more likely to become dual users than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=1.43, 95% CI=1.14, 1.80). Young adults initiated menthol smoking at a higher rate than older adults (age 18-24 years versus ≥55 years: hazard ratio=2.45, 95% CI=1.44, 4.15) but not nonmenthol smoking (hazard ratio=1.02, 95% CI=0.62, 1.69). There were differences by sex in the impact of menthol flavor on smoking initiation and discontinuation but little difference by education or income.

Conclusions: Sociodemographic differences in product transitions should be accounted for when estimating the potential impact of a menthol ban.