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Contribution to Book
Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator
Third Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference; 2007 February 13–15; Fort Collins, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-54 (2008)
  • James N. Long, Utah State University
  • R. Justin DeRose
  • John D Shaw
  • Vacchiano Giorgio
Abstract
The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS-SN) is made up of individual submodels that predict tree growth, recruitment and mortality. Forest managers on Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, discovered biologically unrealistic longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) size-density predictions at large diameters when using FVS-SN to project red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat. Inventory data from Ft. Bragg indicated the mortality submodel was responsible for the over-predictions. Three approaches to remedy longleaf pine mortality predictions in FVS-SN were explored: (1) using stand density modifier keywords, (2) using a tree size cap to influence mortality rates but not growth, and (3) iteratively invoking a mortality rate based on empirical data. Results showed the third approach was the only viable alternative. Details of this approach are described so that an FVS-SN user can effectively constrain predicted longleaf pine size-density combinations at realistic levels. Although the approach was successful, it required advanced knowledge of size-density relationships for longleaf pine. It also demands an advanced understanding of FVS-SN from the user. We suggest over-prediction of size-density relations at large diameters will be evident in any growth and yield model using similar mortality logic. Therefore our results provide a general framework for improving the accuracy of mortality predictions in FVS.
Keywords
  • forest management,
  • forest planning,
  • growth and yield,
  • vegetation dynamics,
  • habitat modeling,
  • carbon inventory,
  • prognosis model,
  • landscape dynamics,
  • fire,
  • fuels,
  • climate change,
  • economics,
  • forest health
Disciplines
Publication Date
2008
Editor
Havis, Robert N.; Crookston, Nicholas L., comps.
Publisher
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Citation Information
James N. Long, R. Justin DeRose, John D Shaw and Vacchiano Giorgio. "Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator" Fort Collins, ColoradoThird Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference; 2007 February 13–15; Fort Collins, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-54 (2008) p. 160 - 166
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jameslong/155/