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Article
Bottom-up estimation and top-down prediction: Solar energy prediction combining information from multiple sources
The Annals of Applied Statistics
  • Youngdeok Hwang, Sungkyunkwan University
  • Siyuan Lu, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
  • Jae Kwang Kim, Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
1-1-2018
DOI
10.1214/18-AOAS1145
Abstract

Accurately forecasting solar power using the data from multiple sources is an important but challenging problem. Our goal is to combine two different physics model forecasting outputs with real measurements from an automated monitoring network so as to better predict solar power in a timely manner. To this end, we propose a new approach of analyzing large-scale multilevel models with great computational efficiency requiring minimum monitoring and intervention. This approach features a division of the large scale data set into smaller ones with manageable sizes, based on their physical locations, and fit a local model in each area. The local model estimates are then combined sequentially from the specified multilevel models using our novel bottom-up approach for parameter estimation. The prediction, on the other hand, is implemented in a top-down matter. The proposed method is applied to the solar energy prediction problem for the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative.

Comments

This article is published as Hwang, Youngdeok; Lu, Siyuan; Kim, Jae-Kwang. Bottom-up estimation and top-down prediction: Solar energy prediction combining information from multiple sources. Ann. Appl. Stat. 12 (2018), no. 4, 2096--2120. doi: 10.1214/18-AOAS1145. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Youngdeok Hwang, Siyuan Lu and Jae Kwang Kim. "Bottom-up estimation and top-down prediction: Solar energy prediction combining information from multiple sources" The Annals of Applied Statistics Vol. 12 Iss. 4 (2018) p. 2096 - 2120
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/jae-kwang-kim/50/