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The Public Health Impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 Treatment in the United States
medRxiv
  • Yuan Bai, University of Hong Kong
  • Zhanwei Du, University of Hong Kong
  • Lin Wang, University of Cambridge
  • Eric H. Y. Lau, University of Hong Kong
  • Isaac Fung, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Petter Holme, Aalto University
  • Ben Cowling, University of Hong Kong
  • Alison Galvani, Yale University
  • Robert Krug, University of Texas at Austin
  • Lauren Ancel Meyers, University of Texas at Austin
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-7-2023
DOI
10.1101/2023.06.16.23288870
Disciplines
Abstract

The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re∼1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% CrI: 1.69, 71.15) thousand deaths averted, and US$52.16 (95% CrI: 2.62, 122.63) billion reduction in health- and treatment-related costs. Rapid and broad use of the antiviral Paxlovid could substantially reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, while averting socioeconomic hardship.

Comments

Georgia Southern University faculty member, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung co-authored The Public Health Impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 Treatment in the United States.

Creative Commons License
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0
Citation Information
Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H. Y. Lau, et al.. "The Public Health Impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 Treatment in the United States" medRxiv (2023)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/isaac_fung1/197/