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Article
Impact of Public Health Policy and Mobility Change on Transmission Potential of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Rhode Island, March 2020 – November 2021
Pathogens and Global Health
  • Chigozie Alexandra Ogwara, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Jennifer W. Ronberg, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Sierra Cox, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Briana M. Wagner, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Jacqueline W. Scotts, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
  • Gerardo Chowell, Georgia State University
  • Anne C. Spaulding, Emory University
  • Isaac Fung, Georgia Southern University, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
4-19-2023
DOI
10.1080/20477724.2023.2201984
Disciplines
Abstract

To study the SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in Rhode Island (RI) and its association with policy changes and mobility changes, the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, was estimated. The daily incident case counts (16 March 2020, through 30 November 2021) were bootstrapped within a 15-day sliding window and multiplied by Poisson-distributed multipliers (λ = 4, sensitivity analysis: 11) to generate 1000 estimated infection counts, to which EpiEstim was applied to generate Rt time series. The median Rt percentage change when policies changed was estimated. The time lag correlations were assessed between the 7-day moving average of the relative changes in Google mobility data in the first 90 days, and Rt and estimated infection count, respectively. There were three major pandemic waves in RI in 2020–2021: spring 2020, winter 2020–2021 and fall-winter 2021. The median Rt fluctuated within the range of 0.5–2 from April 2020 to November 2021. Mask mandate (18 April 2020) was associated with a decrease in Rt (−25.99%, 95% CrI: −37.42%, −14.30%). Termination of mask mandates on 6 July 2021 was associated with an increase in Rt (36.74%, 95% CrI: 27.20%, 49.13%). Positive correlations were found between changes in grocery and pharmacy, Rt retail and recreation, transit, and workplace visits, for both Rt and estimated infection count, respectively. Negative correlations were found between changes in residential area visits for both Rt and estimated infection count, respectively. Public health policies enacted in RI were associated with changes in the pandemic trajectory. This ecological study provides further evidence of how non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination slowed COVID-19 transmission in RI.

Comments

Georgia Southern University faculty member, Isaac Fung co-authored Impact of Public Health Policy and Mobility Change on Transmission Potential of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Rhode Island, March 2020 – November 2021.

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Citation Information
Chigozie Alexandra Ogwara, Jennifer W. Ronberg, Sierra Cox, Briana M. Wagner, et al.. "Impact of Public Health Policy and Mobility Change on Transmission Potential of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Rhode Island, March 2020 – November 2021" Pathogens and Global Health (2023)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/isaac_fung1/183/