This paper uses international migration data and climate variables in a multi-country setting to investigate to what extent migration can be explained with climate variations. A gravity model of migration augmented with average temperature and precipitation in the origin country is estimated including the usual control variables. Several panel data estimators are applied, including dynamic panel data models. We find two primary results. First, higher temperatures increase migration for all countries. Second, lower precipitation levels also increase migration both in the short and in the long term. Both effects are significant in statistical and in economic terms. In particular, a 1°C rise in temperature in a given year increases the migration stock by 3.9 percent for each destination on average.
- temperature precipitation panel data migration flows climate degradation
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/inma_martinez_zarzoso/27/