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Presentation
Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates
Electrical and Computer Engineering Conference Papers, Posters and Presentations
  • Kai Zhou, Iowa State University
  • James R. Cruise, Riverlane Research
  • Chris J. Dent, University of Edinburgh
  • Ian Dobson, Iowa State University
  • Louis Wehenkel, University of Liege
  • Zhaoyu Wang, Iowa State University
  • Amy L. Wilson, University of Edinburgh
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Disciplines
Publication Date
1-1-2020
Abstract

Despite the important role transmission line outages play in power system reliability analysis, it remains a challenge to estimate individual line outage rates accurately enough from limited data. Recent work using a Bayesian hierarchical model shows how to combine together line outage data by exploiting how the lines partially share some common features in order to obtain more accurate estimates of line outage rates. Lower variance estimates from fewer years of data can be obtained. In this paper, we explore what can be achieved with this new Bayesian hierarchical approach using real utility data. In particular, we assess the capability to detect increases in line outage rates over time, quantify the influence of bad weather on outage rates, and discuss the effect of outage rate uncertainty on a simple availability calculation.

Comments

This is a pre-print of the proceeding Zhou, Kai, James R. Cruise, Chris J. Dent, Ian Dobson, Louis Wehenkel, Zhaoyu Wang, and Amy L. Wilson. "Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates." (2020). Posted with permission.

Rights
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Copyright Owner
IEEE
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Kai Zhou, James R. Cruise, Chris J. Dent, Ian Dobson, et al.. "Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates" (2020)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/ian-dobson/36/