Article
North American Blackout Time Series Statistics and Implications for Blackout Risk
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Document Type
Article
Disciplines
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
1-1-2016
DOI
10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2510627
Abstract
We use North American Electric Reliability Corporation historical data to give improved estimates of distributions of blackout size, time correlations, and waiting times for the Eastern and Western interconnections of the North American grid. We then explain and estimate the implications of the power law region (heavy tails) in the empirical distribution of blackout size in the historical data for the Western interconnection. Annual mean blackout size has high variability and the risk of large blackouts exceeds the risk of medium size blackouts. Ways to communicate blackout risk are discussed.
Rights
© 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Copyright Owner
IEEE
Copyright Date
2016
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman and Ian Dobson. "North American Blackout Time Series Statistics and Implications for Blackout Risk" IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Vol. 31 Iss. 6 (2016) p. 4406 - 4414 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/ian-dobson/19/
This is a manuscript of an article published as Carreras, Benjamin A., David E. Newman, and Ian Dobson. "North American blackout time series statistics and implications for blackout risk." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 31, no. 6 (2016): 4406-4414. doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2510627. Posted with permission.