Objective: We compared the accuracy of clinicians and a risk score (iScore) to predict observed outcomes following an acute ischemic stroke. Methods: The JURaSSiC (Clinician JUdgment vs. Risk Score to predict Stroke outComes) study assigned 111 clinicians with expertise in acute stroke care to predict the probability of outcomes of 5 ischemic stroke case scenarios. Cases (n=1,415) were selected as being representative of the 10 most common clinical presentations from a pool of over 12,000 stroke patients admitted to 12 stroke centers. The primary outcome was prediction of death or disability (mRS≥3) at discharge within the 95% confidence interval (CI) of observed outcomes. Secondary outcomes included 30-day mortality and death or institutionalization at discharge. Results: Clinicians made 1661 predictions with overall accuracy of 16.9% for death or disability at discharge, 46.9% for 30-day mortality, and 33.1% for death or institutionalization at discharge. In contrast, 90% of the iScore-based estimates were within the 95% CI of observed outcomes. Nearly half (n=53 of 111; 48%) of participants were unable to accurately predict the probability of the primary outcome in any of the 5 rated cases. Less than 1% (n=1) provided accurate predictions in 4 of the 5 cases and none accurately predicted all 5 case outcomes. In multivariable analyses, the presence of patient characteristics associated with poor outcomes (mRS≥3 or death) in previous studies (older age, high NIHSS score and non-lacunar subtype) were associated with more accurate clinician predictions of death at 30-days (OR 2.40, 95%CI 1.57-3.67) and with a trend for more accurate predictions of death or disability at discharge (OR 1.85, 95%CI 0.99-3.46). Conclusions: Clinicians with expertise in stroke performed poorly compared to a validated tool in predicting the outcomes of patients with an acute ischemic stroke. Use of the risk stroke outcome tool may be superior for decision-making following an acute ischemic stroke.
- risk scores,
- clinician judgement,
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/gustavo_saposnik/42/