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Unpublished Paper
The effect of China's political relations on her international trade
(2016)
  • Gregory W WHITTEN
  • Ms. Xiaoyi DAI, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
  • Chengze, Simon FAN, Lingnan University, Hong Kong
  • Yifan ZHANG
Abstract
The EU's achievements belong to a larger set of greater international, political and economic integration witnessed in the post-World War II era.  Though political and economic integration may be thought as mutually re-enforcing, recent events (e.g., Brexit, the 2016 US Presidential Elections) have caused people to think otherwise.  China's growing influence on the world has had profound effects on the political and economic decisions of her partner countries.  This paper demonstrates that regardless of the severity of the conflict (displeasure at meetings with the Dalai Lama; saber-rattling over disputed territory), political relations affect trade between China and her partners.  Warmer relations lead to larger increases (or smaller decreases) in trade while cooler relations have the opposite effect.  This finding is robust to estimation methods (pair-specific VARs; a SUR system).
Keywords
  • international trade,
  • conflict,
  • political tensions
Publication Date
Fall 2016
Comments
JEL Codes: F14; F51; F52; O19; P33
Citation Information
Gregory W WHITTEN, Xiaoyi DAI, Chengze, Simon FAN and Yifan ZHANG. "The effect of China's political relations on her international trade" (2016)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/gregory_whitten/10/