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Article
Do fear indices help predict stock returns
SSRN Electronic Journal
  • Ghulame Rubbaniy
  • Robel Asmerom
  • Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2012
Abstract

This study investigates the forecasting power of implied volatility indices on forward looking returns. Prior studies document that negative innovations to returns are associated with increasing implied volatility of the underlying indices; thus, suggesting a possible relationship between extremely high levels of implied volatility and positive short term returns. We investigate this issue by examining the predictive power of three implied volatility indices, VIX, VXN and VDAX, on the underlying index returns. We extend previous research by also focusing on characterised selected stocks and examine the relationship between implied volatility indices and future returns across different sectors and classified portfolios. Our findings suggest that implied volatility indices are good predictors of 20-days and 60-days forward looking returns and illustrate insignificant predictive power for very short term (1-day and 5-days) returns.

Publisher
Elsevier BV
Indexed in Scopus
No
Open Access
No
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2121274
Citation Information
Ghulame Rubbaniy, Robel Asmerom and Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi. "Do fear indices help predict stock returns" SSRN Electronic Journal Vol. 14 (2012) p. 831 - 847 ISSN: <a href="https://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/1556-5068" target="_blank">1556-5068</a>
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/ghulame-rubbaniy/3/