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Article
Prior Day Effect in Forecasting Daily Natural Gas Flow from Monthly Data
2018 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM)
  • Maral Fakoor, Marquette University
  • George F. Corliss, Marquette University
  • Ronald H. Brown, Marquette University
Document Type
Article
Language
eng
Publication Date
8-5-2018
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE)
Abstract

Many needs exist in the energy industry where measurement is monthly yet daily values are required. The process of disaggregation of low frequency measurement to higher frequency values has been presented in this literature. Also, a novel method that accounts for prior-day weather impacts in the disaggregation process is presented, even though prior-day impacts are not directly recoverable from monthly data. Having initial daily weather and gas flow data, the weather and flow data are aggregated to generate simulated monthly weather and consumption data. Linear regression models can be powerful tools for parametrization of monthly/daily consumption models and will enable accurate disaggregation. Two-, three-, four-, and six-parameter linear regression models are built. RMSE and MAPE are used as means for assessing the performance of the proposed approach. Extensive comparisons between the monthly/daily gas consumption forecasts show higher accuracy of the results when the effect of prior-day weather inputs are considered.

Comments

Accepted version. 2018 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM), (August 5-10, 2018). DOI. © Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). Used with permission.

Citation Information
Maral Fakoor, George F. Corliss and Ronald H. Brown. "Prior Day Effect in Forecasting Daily Natural Gas Flow from Monthly Data" 2018 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM) (2018) ISSN: 1944-9933
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/george_corliss/22/