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Multi-Model Projections of Precipitation Extremes in Southeast Asia Based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia Simulations
Physics Faculty Publications
  • Supari -, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Fredolin T Tangang, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Liew Juneng, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Faye T Cruz, Manila Observatory
  • Jing Xiang Chung, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Sheau Tieh Ngai, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Ester Salimun, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
  • Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd, National Hydraulic Research Institute Malaysia (NAHRIM)
  • Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, Ramkhamhaeng University
  • Patama Singhruck, Chulalongkorn University
  • Tan PhanVan, VNU University of Science
  • Thanh Ngo-Duc, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi
  • Gemma T Narisma, Ateneo de Manila University
  • Edvin Aldrian, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Indonesia
  • Dodo Gunawan, Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Indonesia
  • Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Indonesia
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
3-9-2020
Abstract

This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081–2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.

Citation Information
Supari, Tangang, F., Juneng, L., Cruz, F., Chung, J. X., Ngai, S. T., Salimun, E., Mohd, M. S. F., Santisirisomboon, J., Singhruck, P., PhanVan, T., Ngo-Duc, T., Narisma, G., Aldrian, E., Gunawan, D., & Sopaheluwakan, A. (2020). Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations. Environmental Research, 184, 109350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350