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Article
Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies
Journal of Theoretical Biology (2008)
  • Gary F. McCracken, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Abstract

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.08.007

Keywords
  • Immune system,
  • Viral infection,
  • Rabies,
  • Individual heterogeneity,
  • Disease processes and demographics,
  • Bats
Publication Date
November, 2008
Citation Information
Gary F. McCracken. "Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies" Journal of Theoretical Biology Vol. 255 Iss. 1 (2008)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/gary_mccracken/19/