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Article
Evidence of predictability in the cross-section of bank stock returns. Journal
USF St. Petersburg campus Faculty Publications
  • Michael Cooper
  • William T. Jackson
  • Gary A. Patterson
SelectedWorks Author Profiles:
Gary A. Patterson
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2003
Disciplines
Abstract

In this paper, we examine the predictability of the cross-section of bank stock returns by taking advantage of the unique set of industry characteristics that prevail in the financial services sector. We examine predictability in the cross-section of bank stock returns using information contained in individual bank fundamental variables such as income from derivative usage, previous loan commitments, loan-loss reserves, earnings, and leverage. We find that variables related to non-interest income, loan-loss reserves, earnings, leverage, and standby letters of credit are all univariately important in forecasting the cross-section of bank stock returns. Surprisingly, neither book-to-market nor firm size is important in our sample. We examine whether this cross-sectional predictability is due to increased risk, or another explanation, such as investor under or overreaction. Our results suggest that this predictability is not due to increased risk, but rather is consistent with investor underreaction to changes in banks_ fundamental variables. Furthermore, out-of-sample testing demonstrates this underreaction appears to be exploitable using simple cross-sectional trading strategies.

Comments
Citation only. Full-text article is available through licensed access provided by the publisher. Published in Journal of Banking & Finance, 27, 817-850. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4266(01)00263-1. Members of the USF System may access the full-text of the article through the authenticated link provided.
Language
en_US
Publisher
Elsevier
Creative Commons License
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
Citation Information
Cooper, M.J., Jackson, W.E., III & Patterson, G.A. (2003). Evidence of predictability in the cross-section of bank stock returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 27, 817-850. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4266(01)00263-1