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Validating Policy Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs
Journal of Forecasting (2016)
  • Mari Carmen Lima
  • Alejandro Cardenete, Universidad Loyola Andalucía
  • Ferran Sancho
We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of yearly applicable policy shocks related to European Union Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are also accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up some of the main external changes not explained by the model. We use these model adaptations to generate a sequence of model produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check the relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs.
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Mari Carmen Lima, Alejandro Cardenete and Ferran Sancho. "Validating Policy Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs" Journal of Forecasting Iss. forthcoming (2016)
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