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Article
Temperature Forecasts with Stable Accuracy in a Smart Home
Procedia Computer Science
  • Bruce Spencer, University of New Brunswick
  • Feras Al-Obeidat, Zayed University
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
1-1-2016
Abstract

© 2016 The Authors. We forecast internal temperature in a home with sensors, modeled as a linear function of recent sensor values. When delivering forecasts as a service, two desirable properties are that forecasts have stable accuracy over a variety of forecast horizons - so service levels can be predicted - and that the forecasts rely on a modest amount of sensor history - so forecasting can be restarted soon after any data outage due to, for example, sensor failure. From a publicly available data set, we show that sensor values over the past one or two hours are sufficient to meet these demands. A standard machine learning method based on forward stepwise linear regression with cross validation gives forecasts whose out-of-sample errors increase slowly as the forecast horizon increases, and that are accurate to within one fifth of a degree C over three hours, and to within about one half degree C over six hours, based on one or two hours of history. Previous results from this data achieved errors within one degree C over three hours based on five days of history.

Publisher
Elsevier
Disciplines
Keywords
  • domotic house,
  • forecast accuracy,
  • forward stepwise linear regression,
  • service level agreement,
  • Temperature forecasts
Scopus ID

84971219282

Creative Commons License
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International
Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
Yes
Open Access Type
Gold: This publication is openly available in an open access journal/series
Citation Information
Bruce Spencer and Feras Al-Obeidat. "Temperature Forecasts with Stable Accuracy in a Smart Home" Procedia Computer Science Vol. 83 (2016) p. 726 - 733 ISSN: <p><a href="https://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/1877-0509" target="_blank">1877-0509</a></p>
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/feras-al-obeidat/47/