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Article
Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Role of Natural Resources in the MENA Region
Research in Economics
  • Efstathios Polyzos, Zayed University
  • Simon Kuck, United Arab Emirates University
  • Khadija Abdulrahman, Zayed University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
3-1-2022
Abstract

This paper analyses the conditional effect of demographic change on economic development in the MENA region. We employ fixed-effects panel analysis on data from 19 countries in the region and demonstrate a negative impact of natural rents on the relationship between the working-age population and economic growth. Once the critical level of approximately 16% of resource rents (as share in total GDP) is reached, a one-unit increase in working-age population appears to harm economic growth. Further tests show that this finding is mainly driven by the negative effects of resource rents on female labor force participation. However, other drivers are a large public sector, low private sector development and inefficient labor market policies and issues such as the “Dutch disease”. The main finding remains after robustness checks in the form of controlling for competing hypotheses. Policy makers are advised to encourage economic diversification, female employment and private sector development.

Publisher
Elsevier
Disciplines
Keywords
  • Resource rents,
  • Demographic change,
  • Middle East,
  • North Africa,
  • Female labor force participation
Scopus ID
85126537037
Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
No
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2022.03.001
Citation Information
Efstathios Polyzos, Simon Kuck and Khadija Abdulrahman. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Role of Natural Resources in the MENA Region" Research in Economics (2022) ISSN: <a href="https://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/1090-9443" target="_blank">
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/efstathios-polyzos/15/