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Article
Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability
International Review of Financial Analysis
  • Stathis Polyzos, Zayed University
  • Aristeidis Samitas, Zayed University
  • Marina Selini Katsaiti, United Arab Emirates University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
11-1-2020
Abstract

© 2020 In this paper, we assess the happiness cost of Brexit in the UK and the EU, using data from the Gallup World Poll. We implement a two-stage learning machine, using a naive Bayes classifier to extract happiness preferences of the population and then passing these onto an artificial neural network of attributes to generate dynamic happiness functions for each household, on an agent-based modelling framework. We find that there is a significant long-run cost in terms of both happiness and unemployment, which primarily affects the most vulnerable portion of the population. In addition, despite the expected instability in City's financial centre, the UK financial sector seems to be well equipped to deal with the repercussions, thus minimising the welfare costs for the country. Our findings extend the discussion of the economic costs of Brexit, by adding the welfare cost of the ensuing financial instability.

Publisher
Elsevier Inc.
Disciplines
Keywords
  • Agent-based finance,
  • Banking crises,
  • Brexit,
  • Happiness economics,
  • Machine learning,
  • Naive Bayes classifier,
  • Neural networks
Scopus ID
85091504358
Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
No
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101590
Citation Information
Stathis Polyzos, Aristeidis Samitas and Marina Selini Katsaiti. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability" International Review of Financial Analysis Vol. 72 (2020) p. 101590 ISSN: <a href="https://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/1057-5219" target="_blank">1057-5219</a>
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/efstathios-polyzos/11/