Article
Twenty-year Follow-up Study of Long-term Survival of Limited-stage Small-cell Lung Cancer and Overview of Prognostic and Treatment Factors
International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics
(2003)
Abstract
PURPOSE: To predict the long-term survival results of clinical trials earlier than using actuarial methods and to assess the factors predictive of long-term cure in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer.
METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 1981 and 1998, 1417 new cases of small-cell lung cancer were diagnosed in Saskatchewan, Canada, of which 244 were limited stage and treated with curative intent. They were followed to the end of February 2002. A parametric lognormal statistical model was retrospectively validated to determine whether long-term survival rates could be estimated several years earlier than is possible using the standard life-table actuarial method.
RESULTS: The survival time of the uncured group followed a lognormal distribution. Four 2-year periods of diagnosis were combined, and patients were followed as a cohort for an additional 2 years. The estimated 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 13% by the lognormal model. The Kaplan-Meier calculation for 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 15% +/- 3%. The data also showed that the absence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy and higher chest radiotherapy dose were significant prognostic factors on multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). Among the 163 patients given prophylactic cranial irradiation, a higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases.
CONCLUSION: The lognormal model has been validated for the estimation of survival in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. A higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases.
Keywords
- Algorithms,
- Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols,
- Brain Neoplasms,
- Carcinoma,
- Small Cell,
- Cranial Irradiation,
- Follow-Up Studies,
- Humans,
- Lung Neoplasms,
- Models,
- Statistical,
- Multivariate Analysis,
- Prognosis,
- Radiotherapy Dosage,
- Salvage Therapy,
- Saskatchewan,
- Statistics as Topic,
- Survival Rate
Disciplines
Publication Date
July 1, 2003
Citation Information
Patricia Tai, Jon Tonita, Edward Yu and David Skarsgard. "Twenty-year Follow-up Study of Long-term Survival of Limited-stage Small-cell Lung Cancer and Overview of Prognostic and Treatment Factors" International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics Vol. 56 Iss. 3 (2003) Available at: http://works.bepress.com/edwardyu/55/