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Article
Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013
Geophysical Research Letters
  • Stefan A. Talke, Portland State University
  • Philip M. Orton, Stevens Institute of Technology
  • David A. Jay, Portland State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
5-1-2014
Subjects
  • Storm surges,
  • Tides,
  • North Atlantic oscillation -- Environmental aspects,
  • North Atlantic Ocean -- Climate
Abstract
Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%.
Description

This is the publisher's final PDF. Originally published in Geophysical Research Letters (http://preview.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007/) and is copyrighted by American Geophysical Union (http://www.agu.org/)

DOI
10.1002/2014GL059574
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/11559
Citation Information
Talke, S. A., P. Orton, and D. A. Jay (2014), Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059574.