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Article
Volatility Estimation of Forecasted Project Returns for Real Options Analysis
Proceedings of the National Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management
  • Neal Lewis
  • David Spurlock, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Abstract

Real Options Analysis is a technique that offers advantages over the traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach for determining project valuation. Although options analysis uses some of the same input variables used in the DCF approach, it requires one additional variable, the volatility of the project's forecasted returns, which is notoriously difficult to estimate reliably. There are several techniques that are used to model volatility when relevant historical data from similar projects are not available. This paper reviews the nature and potential limitations of these approaches, and provides recommendations regarding the appropriate uses of the estimates resulting from these methods.

Department(s)
Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
  • Project Valuation,
  • Real Options Analysis,
  • Discounted cash flow
Document Type
Article - Conference proceedings
Document Version
Citation
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 2004 American Society for Engineering Management (ASEM), All rights reserved.
Publication Date
1-1-2004
Publication Date
01 Jan 2004
Citation Information
Neal Lewis and David Spurlock. "Volatility Estimation of Forecasted Project Returns for Real Options Analysis" Proceedings of the National Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management (2004)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/david-spurlock/11/