Article
Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record
Political Science Quarterly
(2008)
Abstract
How can we illuminate the pattern of outcomes in American presidential elections? I argue here for incumbency advantage as an account, drawing on simple data and electoral history back through 1788. Familiar as it is in the congressional realm, incumbency advantage could perhaps use more emphasis in the presidential realm. It seems to be a major factor there. Plau- sibly considered, for example, in light of the historical record regarding in- cumbency and elections, incumbent-free contests like those of 2000 and 2008 loom as even-up propositions in terms of either party’s probable success. From the 1790s through 2000, omitting the peculiar multi-candidate election of 1824, parties holding the American presidency lost it exactly half the time when they did not run incumbent candidates.
Keywords
- Political Science,
- Presidential Elections,
- Incumbency Advantage
Disciplines
Publication Date
Summer 2008
DOI
10.1002/j.1538-165X.2008.tb00622.x
Citation Information
David R. Mayhew. "Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Historical Record" Political Science Quarterly Vol. 123 Iss. 2 (2008) p. 201 - 228 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/david-mayhew/11/