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Article
Short-Term Stock Market Timing Prediction under Reinforcement Learning Schemes
Proceedings of the IEEE International Symposium on Approximate Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning 2007 (2007, Honolulu, HI)
  • Hailin Li
  • Cihan H. Dagli, Missouri University of Science and Technology
  • David Lee Enke, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Abstract

There are fundamental difficulties when only using a supervised learning philosophy to predict financial stock short-term movements. We present a reinforcement-oriented forecasting framework in which the solution is converted from a typical error-based learning approach to a goal-directed match-based learning method. The real market timing ability in forecasting is addressed as well as traditional goodness-of-fit-based criteria. We develop two applicable hybrid prediction systems by adopting actor-only and actor-critic reinforcement learning, respectively, and compare them to both a supervised-only model and a classical random walk benchmark in forecasting three daily-based stock indices series within a 21-year learning and testing period. The performance of actor-critic-based systems was demonstrated to be superior to that of other alternatives, while the proposed actor-only systems also showed efficacy

Meeting Name
IEEE International Symposium on Approximate Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning 2007 (2007: Apr. 1-5, Honolulu, HI)
Department(s)
Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
  • Stock Market,
  • Forecasting Framework,
  • Random Walk Benchmark,
  • Timing Prediction
Document Type
Article - Conference proceedings
Document Version
Final Version
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 2007 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), All rights reserved.
Publication Date
4-5-2007
Publication Date
05 Apr 2007
Citation Information
Hailin Li, Cihan H. Dagli and David Lee Enke. "Short-Term Stock Market Timing Prediction under Reinforcement Learning Schemes" Proceedings of the IEEE International Symposium on Approximate Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning 2007 (2007, Honolulu, HI) (2007)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/david-enke/23/