Biogeography-based optimization (BBO) is a population-based evolutionary algorithm (EA) that is based on the mathematics of biogeography. Biogeography is the study of the geographical distribution of biological organisms. We present a simplified version of BBO and perform an approximate analysis of the BBO population using probability theory. Our analysis provides approximate values for the expected number of generations before the population's best solution improves, and the expected amount of improvement. These expected values are functions of the population size. We quantify three behaviors as the population size increases: first, we see that the best solution in the initial randomly generated population improves; second, we see that the expected number of generations before improvement increases; and third, we see that the expected amount of improvement decreases.